Latest report shows mammoth-sized U.S. apple crop
Following the Dec. 1 update on apple holdings, the U.S. Apple Association held a harvest wrap-up webinar to shed light on the figures in the report.
Chris Gerlach, USApple’s director of industry analytics, said the total figure was about 190 million bushels — 140 million of those bushels in fresh applies and 51 million in processing.
“The last time we had a total holding of this size in November it was the November 2014-15 season with 188 million bushels — 144 million bushels in fresh and 44 million bushels in processing,” Gerlach said. “For the most part, we’re right on par with the production with the fresh crop there.”
Gerlach said one deviation from the 2014-15 figures is the number of apples in processing this season. He suspected with a down market last year, processors used the opportunity to fill holdings then.
“It’s a big year,” said Gerlach, who added that fresh apple holdings are closer to 40% greater year over year.
Big year for state production
Washington state contributes the lion’s share of the year-over-year growth of this year’s crop, Gerlach said. The state is up 38% year over year, which he said is equivalent to 42 million bushels and about 90% of total growth in the U.S.
New York state's 15 million bushels is 10% of the national growth; its crop is up 44% year over year, Gerlach said.
Michigan shows a 6% decrease year over year, but at 12 million bushels, it is down only 1 million bushels from 2022 and still above the state’s five-year average.
“These states account for about 94% of remaining storages,” Gerlach said.
Varieties in holding
Honeycrisp, gala, red delicious, granny smith and fuji make up 76% of the total apple holdings. Gerlach said USApple pulled Envy out of the “other varieties” category to track its growth individually moving forward. Apple growers harvest 4.2 million bushels of Envy apples this season.
Cosmic Crisp experienced a 41% year-over-year growth with 9.5 million bushels harvested this year.
Storage numbers up
Gerlach noted that there are two mindsets for how this year’s crop moved through before December. He said if using the figures set in August by the USDA, it looks like a sluggish movement of apples in storage. However, Gerlach said he suspects the crop is higher than projected and therefore moving at a better rate.
He said the figures in the USApple movement tracker shows a 17.8-million-bushel differential between November and December, up 81% year over year, with varieties coming in and out of storage. Gerlach suspects with apples coming in and going out of storage, that figure could be higher. Washington state moved 16.3 million bushels in November, which is up 97% year over year, Gerlach said.
Gerlach said by comparison, using the 2014-15 season, data from the tracker shows only 14 million bushels for November. So, apple movement this season tracks considerably higher.
“With the 18-million-bushel figure, we are exceeding the net movement in the November 2014 time frame,” he said. “There’s no reason to think we’re dragging our heels.”
Gerlach noted net movement of varieties show gala moving 4.4 million bushels, up 74% year over year. Honeycrisp movement is up 105% at 3.7 million bushels. Movement of granny smith apples is up 204% at 3 million bushels. Red delicious rounds out the top four with 2.1 million bushels, up 53%.
Change in exports
Gerlach suspects a change in exports is a major reason for the high number of apples in holding at this point in the year. U.S. apple exports have been trending downward, he said.
Using the 2014-15 season as a comparison, when the U.S. exported 54.4 million bushels, Gerlach said the data shows an early and aggressive position on exports and a continued focus on exports.
“We’ll do our best to get back, but domestic demand will not be sufficient,” Gerlach said of moving the apples in holding. “We’re way up over last season and looking for new contacts and re-formalizing those contacts lost in the off years.”
Mexico makes up the largest export market currently for U.S. apples at 3 million bushels, which is about 31% of all exports. Canada is next, taking 2 million bushels, or about 22% of the export market. Taiwan comes in third with 920,000 bushels, or about 1% of the market.
U.S. apples lost a critical export destination in India. Gerlach said that last season the U.S. exported 190,000 bushels to India, which is worth about $3 million.
“It’s nice to see that we are getting a little of that market back,” he said.
Price fluctuation
Gerlach said while many commodities have shown significant price increases, the cost of applies has only increased by 13%. What has changed, though, is the cost to grow apples.
“The cost to buy apples up 13% since 2020; [the] cost to grow apples is up 30%,” he said.
In the 2014-15 season with a large apple crop, Gerlach said the data shows pricing reflected the large crop. In July and August, apple prices in 2014 dropped by 12% and prices continued to fall as the season progressed.
“In a year with 190 million bushels in November storages, this is how the pricing reacted,” he said.
Other causes
During a Q&A portion of the report, an attendee asked Gerlach what attributed to the large crop in Washington state.
Gerlach said that while he didn’t have specific data or reports, he noted there was significant heat stress and poor conditions for pollination in 2022. He suspects trees had pent-up energy and use it to develop a large crop this season.
