Year in Produce 2023: Big crops of apples and potatoes bring promotion opportunities

Editor's note: The following is one of the issues highlighted in The Packer's Year in Produce 2023 review.

After tight supplies of elevated pricing for 2022 apple and potato crops, the 2023 season is bringing considerable price relief and promotion opportunities to consumers. The bigger crops have been reflected in shipping point pricing.

Apples aplenty

The average fob price for all apples (organic and conventional) was $28.79 per carton on Dec. 9, according to USDA numbers. That is down 13% from $33.13 per carton at the same time a year ago.

In August, The Yakima, Wash.-based Washington State Tree Fruit Association estimated the state’s fresh crop at just over 134 million standard 40-pound boxes of fresh apples, a 28.8% increase from 2022’s 104.3 million boxes.

Fast forward to December, U.S. fresh apple holdings totaled 124.4 million bushels Dec. 1, the U.S. Apple Association reported, up 33% more than inventories reported this same time last year and 20% more than the five-year average for December.

In coverage in September, The Packer reported on apple crop expectations. From that Sept. 27 coverage:

This year has been particularly favorable for apple growing, said Brianna Shales, marketing director for Stemilt Growers, Wenatchee, Wash.

“In 2022 we had every weather that could happen — snow during bloom, multiple hail events — so it led to a challenging year,” she said. “This year it’s the complete inverse of that; we had really warm weather during bloom then a very nice moderate summer with not many days 100 degrees-plus. So, we’re seeing great size and color.”

Thanks to the favorable weather, Washington is expecting to produce nearly 130 million cartons of apples this year, according to the Washington Tree Fruit Association. This is a significant increase over last year when the state produced close to 100 million cases.

“We couldn’t have asked for better weather this year for growing apples,” said Rochelle Bohm, vice president of marketing for CMI Orchards in Wenatchee. “You want it to be 80 to 90 degrees, then really cool nights, and that’s how you get crispness in the fruit. A wide temperature spread between day and night is ideal, and we’ve had one of the best weather years we’ve had in a long time.”

Washington is home to more than 30 varieties of apples — some of them year-round mainstays, some more experimental new varieties, and others that fall somewhere in between.

Cosmic Crisp is a recent star available to all Washington growers, Shales said.

“I expect it to be in the top 10 apple varieties in the U.S. because of the volume that’s been planted and now come into production,” she said.

Though Cosmic Crisps are only grown in Washington, they’re sold across the country, as well as in Canada and Mexico, Shales said.

Cosmic Crisp demand exceeds supply, said Gipe-Stewart of Superfresh Growers, who added that consumer demand lasts all year.

“We are still working through storage fruit and eagerly wait for Dec. 1 shipment dates for the 2023 crop,” she said.

Potato possibilities

For potatoes, the USDA reported a fob average price of $12.85 per carton on Dec. 9, down about half from nearly $25 per carton on July 1 and down 28% from $17.95 per carton at the same a year ago.

The expanded supply is tied to an increase in acreage.

In June, the USDA estimated that 330,000 potato acres were planted in Idaho, up 12% from the previous year. The USDA said the harvested area in Idaho, at 329,500 acres, was also up 12% from the previous year.

In November coverage, The Packer reported on the contrast between last year and this year:

Plenty of potatoes should be available for holiday repasts this year, and ample volume should mean favorable prices for consumers.

Last year a long, wet spring in Idaho — where about half of U.S. fresh-market potatoes are grown — caused a virtual potato shortfall, said Ross Johnson, vice president of retail for the Eagle-based Idaho Potato Commission.

“We just weren’t able to get the yields that we typically expect,” he said.

“This year, we had the complete opposite thing happen,” Johnson said. “We had a beautiful, early spring. We had idyllic weather throughout the growing season.”

The good weather will mean increased supplies of russet, red and yellow potatoes from Idaho Falls, Idaho-based Potandon Produce, said Joey Dutton, sales manager on key accounts and onion sales manager.

“It’s going to be a fun year in terms of markets and being able to sell more potatoes,” he said.

Quality, sizing and yields all are good this season, Dutton said. However, some of the burbank variety to come later may be smaller than usual because they kicked off later and had a shorter growing season.

In December, potato leaders talked the opportunity the bigger potato crop will give retailers:

Potato grower-shippers and their customers are happy with the quality of the Idaho potato crop, Johnson said.

“We had a good Thanksgiving in terms of sales, and we are hoping to continue that success; we’re looking forward to the Christmas holiday promotions," he said.

The Idaho Potato Commission is urging retailers to take advantage of promotion opportunities.

“Most of the category managers today are just repeating what they've done last year because they're stretched so thin,” Johnson said. “But the potato situation in terms of supply this year, compared to the prior two years, is completely different. What we've been communicating with our retail partners is this time frame is a perfect time frame to [increase] package sizes to help consumers stretch their dollars.”

The volume moved with bigger packs will also help growers move their crops, Johnson said, adding that there is value in every pack size.

“We have actually had a couple of retailers switch back to the 10-pound bag, as they have been seeing so much success with it through the Thanksgiving time frame," he said.

Retailers also have seen success merchandising baby petite potatoes in smaller packs.

“We’ve seen that you don’t necessarily need to promote [petite potatoes] on a lower price point,” Johnson said. “It's a merchandising play; [retailers] can promote the 10-pound or the 5-pound russet [bag], and then you can merchandise unique specialty varieties around them. And you will get consumers buying both.”

Retailers may think consumers may buy either russets or petite potatoes, but Johnson said consumers will often take both options.

For foodservice sales, Johnson noted that Idaho potato products offer value to operators and their customers.

In addition to meeting domestic demand, shippers have seen increased inquiries from Asian potato customers, given the ample crop, he said.

David Moquist, with O. C. Schulz & Sons, Crystal, N.D., said the demand for red potatoes this year "seems much stronger than last year.”

In general, Moquist said potatoes are promotable at retail this season.

“It is important for [retailers] do a fair mix of all types and that seems to help overall movement," he said. "Potatoes are still a bargain for consumers."

Compared with year ago levels, not all produce commodities showed the deflation that apple and potatoes showed in December.

Here is a comparison of commodity pricing in December compared with a year ago:

• Avocados — $28.17 per carton, up 34% compared with the same date a year ago.
• Blueberries —  $27 per carton on Dec. 9, up 80% compared with the same date a year ago.
• Grapes — $33.25 per carton Dec. 9, up 38% compared with same date a year ago.
• Onions — $15.40 per carton on Dec.9, up 6% higher than a year ago.
• Oranges — $30.61 per carton, up 39% compared with a year ago.
• Romaine lettuce — $24.12 per carton, down 64% compared with the same date a year ago.
• Tomatoes — $20.44 per carton, down 45% compared with the same date a year ago.